Tuesday, January 12, 2016

GC Predictions for TFSL2016

Heading into final 3 stages we have 2 that "should" be fairly straightforward affairs.
Stage 4 is a 12km flat Time Trial that Lauren Stephens won last year.
Stage 5 is a short road stage that ends with a 18 minute mountaintop finish, averaging 7%. (should be straightforward but a 9? rider move attacked and had over a minute lead at the bottom of the climb last year!)

Here's the results of looking at other short, flat TT's and also other mountaintop finishes.

**Some Ukrainians and Cubans have little racing outside their country so some of their times are just flat guesses.



Obviously this isn't everyone in the race. There may be some skinny climbers that have already lost a bunch of time on the crosswinds so far as well as some good TT'ers that have either sandbagged the finishes or got dropped on the Stage 3 uphill to the line. Either way, they are over a minute back as of now and may challenge on their preferred terrain but will no doubt lose time on their non-preferred terrain.

Now it's easy right? Just don't let each rider get that amount of lead going into the bottom of the Portero finishing climb. Oh wait... there are 400 if's with any crazy amount of things that can happen! Oh and don't forget after all this there is one more circuit stage on the last day.

Good Luck!